Dr. Gary Ross--Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of PIRA Energy Group

Introduction:

Dr. Gary N. Ross(CEO, PIRA Energy Group) is a leading authority on worldwide energy markets. He has led PIRA from its inception in 1976, building it into the leading inernational consultancy in energy market intelligence and analysis, currently retailned by more than 500 companies across 60countries. He is also the Managing Director of PIRA's Global Oil Group, where he is responsible for short-and long-term oil market forecasts, overseeing all of the group's published research. Dr. Ross also advises many governments on energy markets and energy policy issues, and he is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was also Chairman of Primo Systems Inc., an energy rist-management software company acquired by SunGard Data Systems. Dr. Ross has a Ph. D. in economics from the City University of New York.

Summary:

The global oil market in 2013 will see dramatic interplay of events. The oil market will be affected by economic activity and growth as well as geopolitical factors. The tension in the Middle East is intensifying. Central banks will continue to pursue large scale liquidity to mitigate the pains of deleveraging in developed countries. China will remain a strong engine for the global economy, and OPEC countries will attempt to control the oil market and prices. Economic contraction in Europe caused by its sovereign debt crisis will drag down global economic growth and oil demand. Oil supply is fragile as well. 2012 saw losses of non-OPEC countries. OPEC tried to balance the market. However, these developing countries have suffered disruption to oil supply for several times in the past five decades and faced unprecedented political uncertainty in recent years. Iran's oil export is subject to economic sanctions and there is a risk of military attack because of its nuclear activities. The civil war in Syria has started to impact other countries in the Middle East, posing a threat to the stability of Iraq, an important OPEC member. Reliable spare production capacity in the global market is thin. In this volatile landscape, the development of shale crude oil in the US and oil sands in Canada are introducing a revolution of oil supply in North America which will reduce this regions dependence on oil imports. In contrast, Asia has a growing demand for Middle East oil and will become more dependent on oil imports, which deserves more strategic focus by Asian countries. China will continue to stress energy efficiency and as a major oil importer, reliant on Middle East oil, it will likely become a leader in renewable energy in the future. The interplay of oil supply/demand, geopolitics, especially in the Middle East, and the extent to which energy efficiency and non-oil fuels, including renewables, are successfully and rapidly developed will drive future oil prices.