Mao Jiaxiang, Vice-President of Economics & Technology Research Institute,  SINOPEC

Summary:

Oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific Region has been growing over the years. The average annual rate of growth amounted to 2.9% in 2000-2012. In 2012, oil consumption reached 1.42 billion tonnes, 76% of which, or 1.07 billion tonnes, was imported from outside the region, mostly from the Middle East. In 2012, oil import from the Americas and Russia was substantially higher than that in 2005. In 2000-2012, consumption of refined oil in the Asia-Pacific Region grew by an annual rate of 3.0% on average. In 2012, the figure reached 740 million tonnes. Consumption of diesel oil has grown rather rapidly. In the future, it is expected that the surplus of refined oil in the region will fall and the supply-demand gap will widen in some countries. Demand for petroleum in the region is projected to be 1.53 billion tonnes and 1.7 billion tonnes in 2015 and 2020 respectively, while crude oil production is expected to remain at about 400 million tonnes, which means that the oil trade volume will continue to grow.

Compared with the rest of the Asia-Pacific Region, China’s oil consumption is growing at an even higher rate. The demand gap is mainly bridged by oil import, which is being diversified. Import from the rest of the Asia-Pacific Region is dropping while import from the Middle East, Europe, Africa and the Americas is rising. In the future, the transportation sector will be the main driver for the rise in oil demand in China. It is estimated that demand for refined oil in China will reach 310 million tonnes in 2015 and 380 million tonnes in 2020. Correspondingly, demand for crude oil will reach 550 million tonnes and 650 million tonnes respectively.

In the Asia-Pacific Region, natural gas consumption has been increasing at a high rate, while production has been increasing at a relatively low rate. It is projected that demand for natural gas in the region will reach 910 billion cubic meters and production will reach 720 billion cubic meters in 2020, meaning a widening gap between supply and demand. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to rise to 400 billion cubic meters in 2020, representing a rise in its percentage in primary energy consumption from 5% to 10%. Natural gas will greatly contribute to energy structural optimization and green low-carbon development in China. However, natural gas consumption in China will still be lower than the global average level.